Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

17.07 – 66.17

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

23 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 20.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 191 ±15.6

6969Cyborgs6969

Season APEX 49.9Event APEX -6.59Rank 48Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 88

7718HVPA Dragons

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 3.98Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

9636Space Junk

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 19.68Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 251.8 ±14.5

5298E-TECH CHARGERS

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 11.62Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2265Fe Maidens

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 19.97Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6300The Northwoodians

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 34.58Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6969, 7718, 9636

/ 100 compat

Projected

17.1 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6969, 7718, 9636

Auto

5.4 34%

Teleop

6.5 41%

Endgame

4.1 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5298, 2265, 6300

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.2 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5298, 2265, 6300

Auto

14.3 25%

Teleop

27.0 48%

Endgame

14.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score17.1pts

Blue projected score66.2pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -49.1
Score range: -3–86
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 124 vs event baseline 110.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

191Season APEX251.8

5.4Auto14.3

6.5Teleop27

4.1Endgame14.8

69Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	18
teleop	15	48
endgame	0	35
foul	0	0
total	23	101

Result

Final score

23 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 20.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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