Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

99.08 – 252.61

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

120 – 289

Prediction correct · off by 28.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 331.2 ±13.4

7611Amal Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 87Event APEX 45.57Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2601Steel Hawks

Season APEX 217.2Event APEX 50.23Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10452RoboLions

Season APEX 27Event APEX 3.28Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 497.4 ±11.7

10213BALTA

Season APEX 217.9Event APEX 148.33Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6911SO BOTZ

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 36.45Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1056Hot Rocks

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 67.83Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7611, 2601, 10452

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.1 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7611, 2601, 10452

Auto

15.6 16%

Teleop

54.0 57%

Endgame

25.6 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10213, 6911, 1056

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.6 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10213, 6911, 1056

Auto

43.7 18%

Teleop

149.1 61%

Endgame

50.6 21%

Strengths

· 10213 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.67 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score99.1pts

Blue projected score252.6pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -153.5
Score range: 80–272
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 409 vs event baseline 107.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

331.2Season APEX497.4

15.6Auto43.7

54Teleop149.1

25.6Endgame50.6

0Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	37
teleop	81	171
endgame	17	61
foul	5	20
total	120	289

Result

Final score

120 – 289

Prediction correct · off by 28.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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