Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

96.49 – 71.73

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

148 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 41.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 249.7 ±16.2

10922Amped

Season APEX 161.2Event APEX 81.85Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7668GatorBots

Season APEX 42.7Event APEX -19.95Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

4091DRIFT

Provisional

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 34.59Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 258.4 ±17

10413Flux Robotics

Season APEX 154.9Event APEX 31.49Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9636Space Junk

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 17.25Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

7589Lishan Blue Magpie

Provisional

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 22.99Rank 45Record 1-8-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10922, 7668, 4091

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10922, 7668, 4091

Auto

29.0 27%

Teleop

56.9 53%

Endgame

21.4 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10413, 9636, 7589

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10413, 9636, 7589

Auto

10.5 16%

Teleop

24.7 37%

Endgame

30.7 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score96.5pts

Blue projected score71.7pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.8
Score range: 53–115
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 252 vs event baseline 105.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

249.7Season APEX258.4

29Auto10.5

56.9Teleop24.7

21.4Endgame30.7

7Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	7
teleop	89	49
endgame	26	48
foul	5	0
total	148	104

Result

Final score

148 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 41.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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