Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

351.79 – 55.93

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

346 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 11.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 662 ±11.2

2053Southern Tier Robotics

Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 119.02Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1796RoboTigers

Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 190.15Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6621Artemis

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 42.62Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 288.5 ±15

6463Robotic Reapers

Season APEX 65Event APEX 10.57Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

369High Voltage Robotics

Season APEX 127.1Event APEX 40.08Rank 38Record 2-7-1Status establishedConfidence 94

3204Steampunk Penguins

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 5.28Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2053, 1796, 6621

/ 100 compat

Projected

351.8 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2053, 1796, 6621

Auto

66.0 19%

Teleop

199.2 59%

Endgame

74.3 22%

Strengths

· 1796 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6463, 369, 3204

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.9 pts

~0.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6463, 369, 3204

Auto

3.4 6%

Teleop

36.5 65%

Endgame

16.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.5 · Blue 0.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score351.8pts

Blue projected score55.9pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 295.9
Score range: 37–371
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 420 vs event baseline 104.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

662Season APEX288.5

66Auto3.4

199.2Teleop36.5

74.3Endgame16.3

109Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	14
teleop	205	31
endgame	84	24
foul	10	5
total	346	74

Result

Final score

346 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 11.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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