Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

36.7 – 38.89

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

66 – 54

Prediction missed · off by 22.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 315.2 ±15

5298E-TECH CHARGERS

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 11.51Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

7759Bulldog Bytes

Season APEX 154.5Event APEX 5.14Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

5806Basement Lions

Season APEX 86.4Event APEX 20.05Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 249.6 ±16.2

7318Nanuet Knightronz

Provisional

Season APEX 36.4Event APEX 1.93Rank 44Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6911SO BOTZ

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 36.42Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10452RoboLions

Season APEX 27Event APEX 0.54Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5298, 7759, 5806

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5298, 7759, 5806

Auto

16.5 48%

Teleop

11.4 33%

Endgame

6.5 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7318, 6911, 10452

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7318, 6911, 10452

Auto

13.0 42%

Teleop

13.6 44%

Endgame

4.4 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score36.7pts

Blue projected score38.9pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.2
Score range: 18–58
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 120 vs event baseline 105.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

315.2Season APEX249.6

16.5Auto13

11.4Teleop13.6

6.5Endgame4.4

0Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	17
teleop	8	29
endgame	12	8
foul	30	0
total	66	54

Result

Final score

66 – 54

Prediction missed · off by 22.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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