Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

133.6 – 106.71

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

125 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 11.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 395.5 ±14.1

2791Shaker Robotics

Season APEX 152Event APEX 34.08Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

6300The Northwoodians

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 34.83Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

10922Amped

Season APEX 161.2Event APEX 64.69Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 412 ±13.9

369High Voltage Robotics

Season APEX 127.1Event APEX 45.25Rank 38Record 2-7-1Status establishedConfidence 94

2601Steel Hawks

Season APEX 217.2Event APEX 51.53Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5123Mechadogs

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 9.93Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2791, 6300, 10922

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.6 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2791, 6300, 10922

Auto

15.7 12%

Teleop

90.5 69%

Endgame

25.1 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 369, 2601, 5123

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.7 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 369, 2601, 5123

Auto

14.5 15%

Teleop

57.6 58%

Endgame

27.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score133.6pts

Blue projected score106.7pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.9
Score range: 84–157
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 218 vs event baseline 126.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

395.5Season APEX412

15.7Auto14.5

90.5Teleop57.6

25.1Endgame27.4

30Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	8
teleop	104	56
endgame	12	9
foul	5	20
total	125	93

Result

Final score

125 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 11.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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