Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

107.08 – 109.62

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

102 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 2.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 220.6 ±15

1056Hot Rocks

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 69.22Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

250The Dynamos

Season APEX 43.7Event APEX 18.37Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

3004Bx Quixote

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 19.49Rank 43Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 308.8 ±14.1

7718HVPA Dragons

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 7.07Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

9077The Crown

Season APEX 137.6Event APEX 67.02Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6300The Northwoodians

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 35.53Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1056, 250, 3004

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1056, 250, 3004

Auto

24.6 23%

Teleop

49.3 46%

Endgame

32.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7718, 9077, 6300

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7718, 9077, 6300

Auto

17.0 16%

Teleop

78.1 74%

Endgame

10.7 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score107.1pts

Blue projected score109.6pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.5
Score range: 88–129
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 212 vs event baseline 105.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

220.6Season APEX308.8

24.6Auto17

49.3Teleop78.1

32.8Endgame10.7

39Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	16
teleop	42	80
endgame	42	14
foul	5	0
total	102	110

Result

Final score

102 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 2.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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