Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

41.12 – 44.54

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 4.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 173.6 ±17.5

11339Cibatronic

Provisional

Season APEX 56Event APEX 39.6Rank 31Record 4-5-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

6969Cyborgs6969

Season APEX 49.9Event APEX -5.09Rank 48Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 88

5123Mechadogs

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 6.61Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 204.6 ±16

11331TarryBots

Provisional

Season APEX 48.2Event APEX -11.32Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

639Code Red Robotics

Season APEX 69.4Event APEX 10Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7611Amal Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 87Event APEX 45.86Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11339, 6969, 5123

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 11339, 6969, 5123

Auto

3.6 12%

Teleop

20.1 67%

Endgame

6.4 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11331, 639, 7611

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11331, 639, 7611

Auto

5.7 11%

Teleop

28.2 56%

Endgame

16.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score41.1pts

Blue projected score44.5pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.4
Score range: 22–64
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 94 vs event baseline 106.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

173.6Season APEX204.6

3.6Auto5.7

20.1Teleop28.2

6.4Endgame16.6

112Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	9
teleop	23	29
endgame	10	10
foul	0	0
total	46	48

Result

Final score

46 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 4.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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