Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

150.19 – 196.77

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

82 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 47.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 404.9 ±13.9

3952 Train Robotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 11.89Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

2601Steel Hawks

Season APEX 217.2Event APEX 61.56Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6593HyperDrive Robotics

Season APEX 114.6Event APEX 76.74Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 568.4 ±11.7

333MEGALODONS

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 30.71Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10213BALTA

Season APEX 217.9Event APEX 145.15Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4122Ossining OBOTS

Season APEX 233.2Event APEX 20.91Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 395, 2601, 6593

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 395, 2601, 6593

Auto

15.9 11%

Teleop

74.8 51%

Endgame

56.1 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 333, 10213, 4122

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 333, 10213, 4122

Auto

50.3 26%

Teleop

109.4 57%

Endgame

30.7 16%

Strengths

· 10213 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score150.2pts

Blue projected score196.8pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46.6
Score range: 131–216
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 305 vs event baseline 105.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

404.9Season APEX568.4

15.9Auto50.3

74.8Teleop109.4

56.1Endgame30.7

0Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	33
teleop	57	131
endgame	3	29
foul	0	30
total	82	223

Result

Final score

82 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 47.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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