Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

95.45 – 56.24

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

95 – 110

Prediction missed · off by 27.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 293 ±15

6300The Northwoodians

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 37.12Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3004Bx Quixote

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 19.99Rank 43Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

369High Voltage Robotics

Season APEX 127.1Event APEX 38.34Rank 38Record 2-7-1Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 353.7 ±16.2

3419RoHawks

Season APEX 153.4Event APEX 24.55Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7759Bulldog Bytes

Season APEX 154.5Event APEX -0.3Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

4091DRIFT

Provisional

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 31.99Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6300, 3004, 369

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6300, 3004, 369

Auto

8.2 9%

Teleop

60.0 64%

Endgame

25.5 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3419, 7759, 4091

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3419, 7759, 4091

Auto

22.1 36%

Teleop

24.7 40%

Endgame

15.2 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score95.5pts

Blue projected score56.2pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39.2
Score range: 37–114
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 205 vs event baseline 103.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

293Season APEX353.7

8.2Auto22.1

60Teleop24.7

25.5Endgame15.2

0Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	35
teleop	45	61
endgame	21	14
foul	15	0
total	95	110

Result

Final score

95 – 110

Prediction missed · off by 27.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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