Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

130.03 – 46.17

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

127 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 16.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 334.6 ±14.5

10413Flux Robotics

Season APEX 154.9Event APEX 35.54Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1056Hot Rocks

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 72.8Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5806Basement Lions

Season APEX 86.4Event APEX 21.69Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 234.4 ±15

6621Artemis

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 38.89Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

64018-bit RAMs

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 17.64Rank 37Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 88

6969Cyborgs6969

Season APEX 49.9Event APEX -10.36Rank 48Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10413, 1056, 5806

/ 100 compat

Projected

130 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10413, 1056, 5806

Auto

26.6 21%

Teleop

62.0 48%

Endgame

40.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6621, 6401, 6969

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.2 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6621, 6401, 6969

Auto

13.1 28%

Teleop

26.1 56%

Endgame

7.4 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.94 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score130pts

Blue projected score46.2pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 83.9
Score range: 27–149
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 204 vs event baseline 103.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

334.6Season APEX234.4

26.6Auto13.1

62Teleop26.1

40.5Endgame7.4

0Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	13
teleop	68	49
endgame	27	0
foul	10	15
total	127	77

Result

Final score

127 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 16.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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