Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

15.19 – 98.88

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

25 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 18.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 256.4 ±15

333MEGALODONS

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 29.5Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3204Steampunk Penguins

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 6.14Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

7668GatorBots

Season APEX 42.7Event APEX -20.45Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 376.2 ±15.1

7611Amal Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 87Event APEX 41.68Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11339Cibatronic

Provisional

Season APEX 56Event APEX 38.86Rank 31Record 4-5-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

4122Ossining OBOTS

Season APEX 233.2Event APEX 18.34Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 333, 3204, 7668

/ 100 compat

Projected

15.2 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 333, 3204, 7668

Auto

8.1 49%

Teleop

4.0 24%

Endgame

4.6 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7611, 11339, 4122

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7611, 11339, 4122

Auto

26.9 29%

Teleop

40.7 43%

Endgame

26.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.76 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score15.2pts

Blue projected score98.9pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -83.7
Score range: -4–118
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 151 vs event baseline 104.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

256.4Season APEX376.2

8.1Auto26.9

4Teleop40.7

4.6Endgame26.7

132Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	21
teleop	6	77
endgame	13	28
foul	0	0
total	25	126

Result

Final score

25 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 18.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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