Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

124.42 – 13.19

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

128 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 28.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 283 ±15.1

10262Bionic Buzzers

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 63.11Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11331TarryBots

Provisional

Season APEX 48.2Event APEX -10.39Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9077The Crown

Season APEX 137.6Event APEX 71.7Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 195.3 ±15

3952 Train Robotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 3.74Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

10452RoboLions

Season APEX 27Event APEX -9.14Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

2265Fe Maidens

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 18.59Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10262, 11331, 9077

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.4 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10262, 11331, 9077

Auto

17.3 14%

Teleop

78.0 62%

Endgame

31.3 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 395, 10452, 2265

/ 100 compat

Projected

13.2 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 395, 10452, 2265

Auto

14.5 100%

Teleop

-20.6 0%

Endgame

13.7 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.09 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score124.4pts

Blue projected score13.2pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 111.2
Score range: -6–143
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 195 vs event baseline 104.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

283Season APEX195.3

17.3Auto14.5

78Teleop-20.6

31.3Endgame13.7

16Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	13
teleop	78	21
endgame	30	18
foul	0	15
total	128	67

Result

Final score

128 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 28.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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