Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

35.67 – 214.39

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

68 – 222

Prediction correct · off by 20 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 169.7 ±17

639Code Red Robotics

Season APEX 69.4Event APEX 5.93Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7730uNReal

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 34.16Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

7318Nanuet Knightronz

Provisional

Season APEX 36.4Event APEX -4.42Rank 44Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 524 ±12.9

7718HVPA Dragons

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 9.64Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

10213BALTA

Season APEX 217.9Event APEX 144.62Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2601Steel Hawks

Season APEX 217.2Event APEX 60.13Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 639, 7730, 7318

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.7 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 639, 7730, 7318

Auto

5.3 15%

Teleop

22.1 64%

Endgame

7.4 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7718, 10213, 2601

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.4 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7718, 10213, 2601

Auto

38.6 18%

Teleop

125.6 59%

Endgame

47.4 22%

Strengths

· 10213 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.5 · Blue 2.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score35.7pts

Blue projected score214.4pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -178.7
Score range: 17–233
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 290 vs event baseline 103.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

169.7Season APEX524

5.3Auto38.6

22.1Teleop125.6

7.4Endgame47.4

82Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	39
teleop	33	125
endgame	18	43
foul	5	15
total	68	222

Result

Final score

68 – 222

Prediction correct · off by 20 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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