Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

176.61 – 127.22

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

209 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 445.1 ±13.5

2053Southern Tier Robotics

Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 113.05Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1056Hot Rocks

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 68.18Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

7759Bulldog Bytes

Season APEX 154.5Event APEX -4.62Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257.4 ±17.5

10152Orbotics

Provisional

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 34.85Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9636Space Junk

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 26.35Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

7504CyBearBots

Season APEX 128.6Event APEX 66.02Rank 14Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2053, 1056, 7759

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2053, 1056, 7759

Auto

28.4 17%

Teleop

98.1 58%

Endgame

41.9 25%

Strengths

· 2053 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10152, 9636, 7504

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10152, 9636, 7504

Auto

25.1 22%

Teleop

75.8 65%

Endgame

14.9 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score176.6pts

Blue projected score127.2pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 49.4
Score range: 109–195
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 305 vs event baseline 102.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

445.1Season APEX257.4

28.4Auto25.1

98.1Teleop75.8

41.9Endgame14.9

119Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	9
teleop	122	42
endgame	49	40
foul	0	5
total	209	96

Result

Final score

209 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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