Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

27.76 – 66.08

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

64 – 51

Prediction missed · off by 25.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 343.6 ±15

3204Steampunk Penguins

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX -1.33Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2791Shaker Robotics

Season APEX 152Event APEX 12.63Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

2265Fe Maidens

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 16.46Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 303 ±14.1

250The Dynamos

Season APEX 43.7Event APEX 24.14Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

6911SO BOTZ

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 29.49Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3952 Train Robotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 12.45Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3204, 2791, 2265

/ 100 compat

Projected

27.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3204, 2791, 2265

Auto

12.5 54%

Teleop

4.1 18%

Endgame

6.7 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 250, 6911, 395

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 250, 6911, 395

Auto

13.1 23%

Teleop

14.2 25%

Endgame

28.6 51%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.05 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score27.8pts

Blue projected score66.1pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -38.3
Score range: 10–84
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 115 vs event baseline 100.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

343.6Season APEX303

12.5Auto13.1

4.1Teleop14.2

6.7Endgame28.6

58Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	2	10
teleop	32	22
endgame	30	4
foul	0	15
total	64	51

Result

Final score

64 – 51

Prediction missed · off by 25.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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