Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

174.25 – 66.11

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

231 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 44.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 382.5 ±12.4

9077The Crown

Season APEX 137.6Event APEX 70.88Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10452RoboLions

Season APEX 27Event APEX -13.52Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

10213BALTA

Season APEX 217.9Event APEX 116.89Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298.3 ±16.2

11339Cibatronic

Provisional

Season APEX 56Event APEX 44.6Rank 31Record 4-5-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

7718HVPA Dragons

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 5.5Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

3419RoHawks

Season APEX 153.4Event APEX 16.01Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9077, 10452, 10213

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9077, 10452, 10213

Auto

37.0 22%

Teleop

102.4 61%

Endgame

29.4 17%

Strengths

· 10213 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11339, 7718, 3419

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.1 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 11339, 7718, 3419

Auto

15.6 23%

Teleop

33.3 50%

Endgame

17.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.04 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score174.3pts

Blue projected score66.1pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 108.1
Score range: 48–192
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 329 vs event baseline 98.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

382.5Season APEX298.3

37Auto15.6

102.4Teleop33.3

29.4Endgame17.8

79Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	14
teleop	152	50
endgame	29	34
foul	0	0
total	231	98

Result

Final score

231 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 44.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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