Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

94.75 – 80.35

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 70

Prediction missed · off by 31.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 284.1 ±15.6

1155SciBorgs

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 22.14Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6593HyperDrive Robotics

Season APEX 114.6Event APEX 76.31Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

11331TarryBots

Provisional

Season APEX 48.2Event APEX -3.7Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 201.6 ±17

639Code Red Robotics

Season APEX 69.4Event APEX 13.06Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5806Basement Lions

Season APEX 86.4Event APEX 30.32Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4091DRIFT

Provisional

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 36.97Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1155, 6593, 11331

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1155, 6593, 11331

Auto

11.7 13%

Teleop

50.2 54%

Endgame

30.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 639, 5806, 4091

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.4 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 639, 5806, 4091

Auto

25.9 33%

Teleop

27.2 35%

Endgame

25.0 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score94.8pts

Blue projected score80.4pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.4
Score range: 62–113
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 112 vs event baseline 100.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

284.1Season APEX201.6

11.7Auto25.9

50.2Teleop27.2

30.5Endgame25

7Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	20
teleop	27	40
endgame	0	10
foul	0	0
total	42	70

Result

Final score

42 – 70

Prediction missed · off by 31.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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