Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

51.75 – 58.18

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

52 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 25 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 291.7 ±14.5

64018-bit RAMs

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 13.2Rank 37Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 88

3004Bx Quixote

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 18.87Rank 43Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

10229Event Horizon

Season APEX 145.5Event APEX 19.68Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 355.7 ±13.5

9636Space Junk

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 28.38Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

333MEGALODONS

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 7.61Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6911SO BOTZ

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 22.19Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6401, 3004, 10229

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6401, 3004, 10229

Auto

-3.5 0%

Teleop

34.3 75%

Endgame

15.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9636, 333, 6911

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9636, 333, 6911

Auto

3.7 7%

Teleop

37.4 69%

Endgame

13.4 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score51.8pts

Blue projected score58.2pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.4
Score range: 34–76
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 160 vs event baseline 100.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

291.7Season APEX355.7

-3.5Auto3.7

34.3Teleop37.4

15Endgame13.4

46Consistency125

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	12
teleop	21	47
endgame	12	29
foul	0	20
total	52	108

Result

Final score

52 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 25 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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