Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

40.16 – 244.46

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 308

Prediction correct · off by 33.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 272.4 ±16.2

7589Lishan Blue Magpie

Provisional

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 19.94Rank 45Record 1-8-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

3419RoHawks

Season APEX 153.4Event APEX 19.12Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5123Mechadogs

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 1.1Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 655.2 ±11.7

2601Steel Hawks

Season APEX 217.2Event APEX 47.34Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1796RoboTigers

Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 183.39Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2265Fe Maidens

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 13.73Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7589, 3419, 5123

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.2 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 7589, 3419, 5123

Auto

11.3 30%

Teleop

21.0 55%

Endgame

5.8 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2601, 1796, 2265

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.5 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2601, 1796, 2265

Auto

51.6 22%

Teleop

133.2 57%

Endgame

48.2 21%

Strengths

· 1796 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.48 · Blue 2.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score40.2pts

Blue projected score244.5pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -204.3
Score range: 22–262
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 352 vs event baseline 98.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

272.4Season APEX655.2

11.3Auto51.6

21Teleop133.2

5.8Endgame48.2

64Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	65
teleop	19	128
endgame	9	95
foul	5	20
total	44	308

Result

Final score

44 – 308

Prediction correct · off by 33.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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