Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

88.61 – 42.89

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

64 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 12.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 215.1 ±17

7748TECHTOLIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 33.81Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11331TarryBots

Provisional

Season APEX 48.2Event APEX 4.27Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6300The Northwoodians

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 50.53Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 240.1 ±14.5

5298E-TECH CHARGERS

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 25.7Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3204Steampunk Penguins

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX -0.85Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

639Code Red Robotics

Season APEX 69.4Event APEX 18.04Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7748, 11331, 6300

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.6 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7748, 11331, 6300

Auto

6.8 7%

Teleop

65.3 70%

Endgame

20.7 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5298, 3204, 639

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.9 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5298, 3204, 639

Auto

12.3 27%

Teleop

28.4 62%

Endgame

5.2 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.71 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score88.6pts

Blue projected score42.9pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.7
Score range: 25–107
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 106 vs event baseline 99.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

215.1Season APEX240.1

6.8Auto12.3

65.3Teleop28.4

20.7Endgame5.2

4Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	18
teleop	40	17
endgame	17	7
foul	0	0
total	64	42

Result

Final score

64 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 12.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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