Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

127.45 – 102.97

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

136 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 30.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 264.9 ±15

6593HyperDrive Robotics

Season APEX 114.6Event APEX 74.51Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5806Basement Lions

Season APEX 86.4Event APEX 19.92Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

7730uNReal

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 33.02Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 357.1 ±14.1

9077The Crown

Season APEX 137.6Event APEX 84.24Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7759Bulldog Bytes

Season APEX 154.5Event APEX 13.36Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

6463Robotic Reapers

Season APEX 65Event APEX 5.37Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6593, 5806, 7730

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6593, 5806, 7730

Auto

13.2 11%

Teleop

72.8 59%

Endgame

37.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9077, 7759, 6463

/ 100 compat

Projected

103 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9077, 7759, 6463

Auto

18.7 19%

Teleop

66.4 69%

Endgame

11.6 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score127.5pts

Blue projected score103pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.5
Score range: 85–145
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 187 vs event baseline 100.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

264.9Season APEX357.1

13.2Auto18.7

72.8Teleop66.4

37.3Endgame11.6

0Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	8
teleop	62	39
endgame	49	4
foul	5	0
total	136	51

Result

Final score

136 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 30.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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