Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

147.79 – 64.42

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

173 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 374.6 ±14.7

1155SciBorgs

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 22.95Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11339Cibatronic

Provisional

Season APEX 56Event APEX 22.55Rank 31Record 4-5-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

2053Southern Tier Robotics

Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 102.29Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 365 ±13.5

6911SO BOTZ

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 17.65Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2265Fe Maidens

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 22Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3004Bx Quixote

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 24.77Rank 43Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1155, 11339, 2053

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1155, 11339, 2053

Auto

26.7 19%

Teleop

89.9 63%

Endgame

26.1 18%

Strengths

· 2053 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6911, 2265, 3004

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.4 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6911, 2265, 3004

Auto

11.4 23%

Teleop

29.9 60%

Endgame

8.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.85 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score147.8pts

Blue projected score64.4pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 83.4
Score range: 46–166
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 232 vs event baseline 101.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

374.6Season APEX365

26.7Auto11.4

89.9Teleop29.9

26.1Endgame8.3

202Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	12
teleop	83	23
endgame	39	19
foul	35	5
total	173	59

Result

Final score

173 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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