Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

132.01 – 72.43

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

63 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 55.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 335.6 ±12.2

2265Fe Maidens

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 23.9Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7611Amal Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 87Event APEX 49.6Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3419RoHawks

Season APEX 153.4Event APEX 58.51Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 454.9 ±13.9

7759Bulldog Bytes

Season APEX 154.5Event APEX 8.11Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

10229Event Horizon

Season APEX 145.5Event APEX 32.07Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10413Flux Robotics

Season APEX 154.9Event APEX 32.25Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2265, 7611, 3419

/ 100 compat

Projected

132 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2265, 7611, 3419

Auto

20.3 16%

Teleop

68.6 54%

Endgame

37.1 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7759, 10229, 10413

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.4 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7759, 10229, 10413

Auto

16.7 28%

Teleop

19.6 33%

Endgame

24.0 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score132pts

Blue projected score72.4pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 59.6
Score range: 49–155
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 93 vs event baseline 126.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

335.6Season APEX454.9

20.3Auto16.7

68.6Teleop19.6

37.1Endgame24

0Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	5
teleop	29	10
endgame	3	10
foul	10	5
total	63	30

Result

Final score

63 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 55.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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