Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

151.28 – 232.9

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

137 – 345

Prediction correct · off by 63.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 360.4 ±13.5

10213BALTA

Season APEX 217.9Event APEX 138.51Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

639Code Red Robotics

Season APEX 69.4Event APEX 17.62Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3952 Train Robotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX -4.85Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 626.3 ±13

1796RoboTigers

Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 165.04Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10413Flux Robotics

Season APEX 154.9Event APEX 15.26Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7504CyBearBots

Season APEX 128.6Event APEX 52.6Rank 14Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10213, 639, 395

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.3 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10213, 639, 395

Auto

38.4 27%

Teleop

76.9 53%

Endgame

29.0 20%

Strengths

· 10213 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1796, 10413, 7504

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1796, 10413, 7504

Auto

46.2 20%

Teleop

131.6 57%

Endgame

52.2 23%

Strengths

· 1796 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.99 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score151.3pts

Blue projected score232.9pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -81.6
Score range: 134–250
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 482 vs event baseline 96.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

360.4Season APEX626.3

38.4Auto46.2

76.9Teleop131.6

29Endgame52.2

86Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	57
teleop	70	199
endgame	42	74
foul	0	15
total	137	345

Result

Final score

137 – 345

Prediction correct · off by 63.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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