Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

38.36 – 69.56

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

53 – 43

Prediction missed · off by 20.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 350.2 ±15.6

250The Dynamos

Season APEX 43.7Event APEX 26.57Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

2791Shaker Robotics

Season APEX 152Event APEX 0.92Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

7759Bulldog Bytes

Season APEX 154.5Event APEX 10.87Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 370.1 ±13.5

4122Ossining OBOTS

Season APEX 233.2Event APEX 20.95Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

64018-bit RAMs

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 22.81Rank 37Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 88

5298E-TECH CHARGERS

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 25.8Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 250, 2791, 7759

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.4 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 250, 2791, 7759

Auto

1.7 5%

Teleop

23.8 76%

Endgame

5.8 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4122, 6401, 5298

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4122, 6401, 5298

Auto

24.7 38%

Teleop

27.4 42%

Endgame

13.2 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score38.4pts

Blue projected score69.6pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.2
Score range: 20–88
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 96 vs event baseline 98.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

350.2Season APEX370.1

1.7Auto24.7

23.8Teleop27.4

5.8Endgame13.2

34Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	29
teleop	29	10
endgame	12	4
foul	5	0
total	53	43

Result

Final score

53 – 43

Prediction missed · off by 20.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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