Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 73.57

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

52 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 28.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 194.1 ±15.6

6463Robotic Reapers

Season APEX 65Event APEX -6.83Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

7668GatorBots

Season APEX 42.7Event APEX -9.88Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

5806Basement Lions

Season APEX 86.4Event APEX 10.55Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 410.9 ±15.6

10229Event Horizon

Season APEX 145.5Event APEX 28.2Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11331TarryBots

Provisional

Season APEX 48.2Event APEX 4.79Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2601Steel Hawks

Season APEX 217.2Event APEX 40.58Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6463, 7668, 5806

/ 100 compat

Projected

-6.2 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6463, 7668, 5806

Auto

9.3 100%

Teleop

0.0 0%

Endgame

-8.8 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10229, 11331, 2601

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10229, 11331, 2601

Auto

15.3 24%

Teleop

37.3 57%

Endgame

12.5 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.94 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score-6.2pts

Blue projected score73.6pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -73.6
Score range: -18–92
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 131 vs event baseline 99.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

194.1Season APEX410.9

9.3Auto15.3

0Teleop37.3

-8.8Endgame12.5

57Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	14
teleop	20	38
endgame	17	27
foul	5	0
total	52	79

Result

Final score

52 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 28.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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