Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

25 – 33.01

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

24 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 30.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 319 ±15

3204Steampunk Penguins

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX -2.01Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5123Mechadogs

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 14.93Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 88

10413Flux Robotics

Season APEX 154.9Event APEX 12.08Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 334.8 ±15

7504CyBearBots

Season APEX 128.6Event APEX 40.41Rank 14Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 92

333MEGALODONS

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX -10.21Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7718HVPA Dragons

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 2.81Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3204, 5123, 10413

/ 100 compat

Projected

25 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3204, 5123, 10413

Auto

-0.5 0%

Teleop

13.5 68%

Endgame

6.8 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7504, 333, 7718

/ 100 compat

Projected

33 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7504, 333, 7718

Auto

6.3 27%

Teleop

29.6 100%

Endgame

-12.3 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score25pts

Blue projected score33pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8
Score range: 7–51
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 117 vs event baseline 99.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

319Season APEX334.8

-0.5Auto6.3

13.5Teleop29.6

6.8Endgame-12.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	13
teleop	6	67
endgame	10	13
foul	0	0
total	24	93

Result

Final score

24 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 30.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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