Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

43.08 – 100.26

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

69 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 14.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 198.5 ±13.9

10452RoboLions

Season APEX 27Event APEX -0.73Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

10262Bionic Buzzers

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 25.46Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5298E-TECH CHARGERS

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 18.35Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 289 ±15

3004Bx Quixote

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 31.98Rank 43Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

6593HyperDrive Robotics

Season APEX 114.6Event APEX 83.33Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5881TVHS Dragons

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX -15.05Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10452, 10262, 5298

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.1 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10452, 10262, 5298

Auto

10.2 23%

Teleop

8.1 19%

Endgame

25.4 58%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3004, 6593, 5881

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3004, 6593, 5881

Auto

12.8 14%

Teleop

64.1 70%

Endgame

15.2 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score43.1pts

Blue projected score100.3pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -57.2
Score range: 25–118
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 167 vs event baseline 99.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

198.5Season APEX289

10.2Auto12.8

8.1Teleop64.1

25.4Endgame15.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	1
teleop	32	47
endgame	15	50
foul	5	0
total	69	98

Result

Final score

69 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 14.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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