Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

204.42 – 43.29

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

295 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 89.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 493.7 ±12.4

7730uNReal

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 38.77Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

1796RoboTigers

Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 135.33Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7611Amal Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 87Event APEX 30.32Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 341.8 ±14.1

9636Space Junk

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX -2.74Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

2791Shaker Robotics

Season APEX 152Event APEX -8.95Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

9077The Crown

Season APEX 137.6Event APEX 54.98Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7730, 1796, 7611

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.4 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7730, 1796, 7611

Auto

42.6 21%

Teleop

119.1 59%

Endgame

40.9 20%

Strengths

· 1796 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9636, 2791, 9077

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.3 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9636, 2791, 9077

Auto

8.1 26%

Teleop

24.2 78%

Endgame

-1.4 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.25 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score204.4pts

Blue projected score43.3pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 161.1
Score range: 26–221
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 426 vs event baseline 94.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

493.7Season APEX341.8

42.6Auto8.1

119.1Teleop24.2

40.9Endgame-1.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	21
teleop	186	77
endgame	71	28
foul	5	5
total	295	131

Result

Final score

295 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 89.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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