Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

63 – 104.61

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

125 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 72.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307.7 ±15.6

7589Lishan Blue Magpie

Provisional

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 9.03Rank 45Record 1-8-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

10922Amped

Season APEX 161.2Event APEX 50.68Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2265Fe Maidens

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 3.29Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 388.9 ±13.5

10213BALTA

Season APEX 217.9Event APEX 116.23Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5806Basement Lions

Season APEX 86.4Event APEX -8.94Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

7748TECHTOLIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX -2.68Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7589, 10922, 2265

/ 100 compat

Projected

63 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7589, 10922, 2265

Auto

10.8 19%

Teleop

40.6 73%

Endgame

4.5 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10213, 5806, 7748

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10213, 5806, 7748

Auto

19.3 20%

Teleop

57.6 59%

Endgame

20.0 21%

Strengths

· 10213 anchors offense

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score63pts

Blue projected score104.6pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.6
Score range: 46–122
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 313 vs event baseline 94.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307.7Season APEX388.9

10.8Auto19.3

40.6Teleop57.6

4.5Endgame20

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	36
teleop	62	114
endgame	38	38
foul	0	0
total	125	188

Result

Final score

125 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 72.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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