Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

156.41 – 92.98

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

91 – 181

Prediction missed · off by 76.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 306.2 ±13.9

333MEGALODONS

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 18.3Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5298E-TECH CHARGERS

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 33.4Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6593HyperDrive Robotics

Season APEX 114.6Event APEX 104.71Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 433 ±12.4

2053Southern Tier Robotics

Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 50.44Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6300The Northwoodians

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 35.14Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3419RoHawks

Season APEX 153.4Event APEX 7.4Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 333, 5298, 6593

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.4 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 333, 5298, 6593

Auto

29.3 19%

Teleop

91.7 60%

Endgame

32.1 21%

Strengths

· 6593 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2053, 6300, 3419

/ 100 compat

Projected

93 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2053, 6300, 3419

Auto

13.9 16%

Teleop

67.5 75%

Endgame

8.2 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score156.4pts

Blue projected score93pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63.4
Score range: 77–172
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 272 vs event baseline 91.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

306.2Season APEX433

29.3Auto13.9

91.7Teleop67.5

32.1Endgame8.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	23
teleop	60	117
endgame	17	36
foul	0	5
total	91	181

Result

Final score

91 – 181

Prediction missed · off by 76.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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