Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 32.53

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

16 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 185 ±17.5

9636Space Junk

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX -9.96Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

7318Nanuet Knightronz

Provisional

Season APEX 36.4Event APEX -6.11Rank 44Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3204Steampunk Penguins

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 14.09Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 294.5 ±17

369High Voltage Robotics

Season APEX 127.1Event APEX 19.09Rank 38Record 2-7-1Status establishedConfidence 94

10152Orbotics

Provisional

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 17.71Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5881TVHS Dragons

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX -4.27Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9636, 7318, 3204

/ 100 compat

Projected

-2 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9636, 7318, 3204

Auto

1.0 0%

Teleop

2.5 0%

Endgame

-6.3 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 369, 10152, 5881

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 369, 10152, 5881

Auto

5.4 31%

Teleop

16.1 91%

Endgame

-3.8 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score-2pts

Blue projected score32.5pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.5
Score range: -17–50
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 81 vs event baseline 96.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

185Season APEX294.5

1Auto5.4

2.5Teleop16.1

-6.3Endgame-3.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	13
teleop	5	30
endgame	3	17
foul	0	5
total	16	65

Result

Final score

16 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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