Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

73.5 – 89.15

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

241 – 9

Prediction missed · off by 123.8 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 430.1 ±14.1

3004Bx Quixote

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 0.85Rank 43Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

7504CyBearBots

Season APEX 128.6Event APEX 12.36Rank 14Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 92

10213BALTA

Season APEX 217.9Event APEX 60.29Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 286.6 ±17.5

5806Basement Lions

Season APEX 86.4Event APEX 17.14Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

11331TarryBots

Provisional

Season APEX 48.2Event APEX 43.71Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2791Shaker Robotics

Season APEX 152Event APEX 28.3Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3004, 7504, 10213

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.5 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3004, 7504, 10213

Auto

20.0 27%

Teleop

39.8 54%

Endgame

13.9 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5806, 11331, 2791

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5806, 11331, 2791

Auto

10.2 12%

Teleop

64.0 72%

Endgame

14.3 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score73.5pts

Blue projected score89.2pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.7
Score range: 58–105
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 250 vs event baseline 89.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

430.1Season APEX286.6

20Auto10.2

39.8Teleop64

13.9Endgame14.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	4
teleop	154	3
endgame	34	2
foul	15	0
total	241	9

Result

Final score

241 – 9

Prediction missed · off by 123.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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