Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

395.02 – 226.05

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

372 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 97 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 706.2 ±10.5

10229Event Horizon

Season APEX 145.5Event APEX 35.5Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10213BALTA

Season APEX 217.9Event APEX 158.89Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1796RoboTigers

Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 200.63Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 513.4 ±11.7

2053Southern Tier Robotics

Season APEX 197.3Event APEX 107.43Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10922Amped

Season APEX 161.2Event APEX 75.79Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10413Flux Robotics

Season APEX 154.9Event APEX 42.83Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10229, 10213, 1796

/ 100 compat

Projected

395 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10229, 10213, 1796

Auto

79.3 21%

Teleop

216.3 58%

Endgame

77.4 21%

Strengths

· 1796 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2053, 10922, 10413

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.1 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2053, 10922, 10413

Auto

30.1 14%

Teleop

125.2 57%

Endgame

64.6 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.3 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score395pts

Blue projected score226.1pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 169
Score range: 204–417
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 427 vs event baseline 124.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

706.2Season APEX513.4

79.3Auto30.1

216.3Teleop125.2

77.4Endgame64.6

0Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	26
teleop	153	6
endgame	93	18
foul	40	5
total	372	55

Result

Final score

372 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 97 pts

Match videos

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