Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

196 – 193.21

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

133 – 234

Prediction missed · off by 51.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 654.2 ±13.3

1405Finney Falcons

Season APEX 188.4Event APEX 91.39Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3044Team 0xBE4

Season APEX 259.2Event APEX 51.93Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1591Greece Gladiators

Season APEX 206.6Event APEX 52.68Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 345.2 ±15.8

1126SPARX

Season APEX 118.9Event APEX 57.95Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3951SUITS

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 48.84Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5528Ultime

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 86.42Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1405, 3044, 1591

/ 100 compat

Projected

196 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1405, 3044, 1591

Auto

29.7 16%

Teleop

101.9 55%

Endgame

52.1 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1126, 3951, 5528

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1126, 3951, 5528

Auto

46.4 24%

Teleop

92.7 48%

Endgame

53.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score196pts

Blue projected score193.2pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.8
Score range: 166–223
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 367 vs event baseline 151.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

654.2Season APEX345.2

29.7Auto46.4

101.9Teleop92.7

52.1Endgame53.4

75Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	59
teleop	54	127
endgame	55	38
foul	0	10
total	133	234

Result

Final score

133 – 234

Prediction missed · off by 51.9 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.