Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

280.89 – 206.02

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

266 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 30.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 572.9 ±12.2

1468Hicksville J-Birds

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 13.83Rank 48Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

424Rust Belt Robotics

Season APEX 220.8Event APEX 144.66Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

340G.R.R. (Greater Rochester Robotics)

Season APEX 265.2Event APEX 122.4Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 654.2 ±13.3

1405Finney Falcons

Season APEX 188.4Event APEX 94.88Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3044Team 0xBE4

Season APEX 259.2Event APEX 55.29Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1591Greece Gladiators

Season APEX 206.6Event APEX 55.85Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1468, 424, 340

/ 100 compat

Projected

280.9 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 1468, 424, 340

Auto

56.9 21%

Teleop

163.9 61%

Endgame

48.8 18%

Strengths

· 424 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1405, 3044, 1591

/ 100 compat

Projected

206 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1405, 3044, 1591

Auto

29.7 15%

Teleop

116.4 58%

Endgame

56.1 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.99 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score280.9pts

Blue projected score206pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 74.9
Score range: 179–308
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 426 vs event baseline 148.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

572.9Season APEX654.2

56.9Auto29.7

163.9Teleop116.4

48.8Endgame56.1

37Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	31
teleop	111	45
endgame	62	39
foul	25	45
total	266	160

Result

Final score

266 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 30.5 pts

Match videos

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