Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

129.26 – 195.26

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

96 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 19 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 301.5 ±16.5

1056Hot Rocks

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 56.37Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2228CougarTech

Season APEX 113Event APEX 28.99Rank 11Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

6868Cadet Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 43.9Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 380.5 ±14.8

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 61.81Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3951SUITS

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 48.27Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5528Ultime

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 85.18Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1056, 2228, 6868

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1056, 2228, 6868

Auto

27.7 22%

Teleop

69.6 56%

Endgame

26.1 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3173, 3951, 5528

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3173, 3951, 5528

Auto

48.5 25%

Teleop

96.9 50%

Endgame

48.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score129.3pts

Blue projected score195.3pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66
Score range: 102–222
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 296 vs event baseline 148.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

301.5Season APEX380.5

27.7Auto48.5

69.6Teleop96.9

26.1Endgame48.1

36Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	59
teleop	22	102
endgame	40	39
foul	5	0
total	96	200

Result

Final score

96 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 19 pts

Match videos

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