Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

162.66 – 166.74

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

218 – 252

Prediction correct · off by 70.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 491.5 ±14.5

353POBots

Season APEX 169.7Event APEX 20.05Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1559Devil Tech

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 63.62Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2340Mercy Robotics-Xcentrics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 78.99Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 513.1 ±12.7

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 52.6Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8503Raid One

Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 46.6Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1507Warlocks

Season APEX 154.7Event APEX 67.54Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 353, 1559, 2340

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 353, 1559, 2340

Auto

26.5 18%

Teleop

89.0 60%

Endgame

33.8 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1511, 8503, 1507

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.7 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 1511, 8503, 1507

Auto

17.3 11%

Teleop

103.6 63%

Endgame

42.5 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score162.7pts

Blue projected score166.7pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.1
Score range: 137–193
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 470 vs event baseline 147.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

491.5Season APEX513.1

26.5Auto17.3

89Teleop103.6

33.8Endgame42.5

66Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	28
teleop	139	102
endgame	28	117
foul	0	5
total	218	252

Result

Final score

218 – 252

Prediction correct · off by 70.3 pts

Match videos

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