Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

264.75 – 210.89

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

249 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 604.1 ±10.4

3181Pittsford Panthers

Season APEX 233Event APEX 112.16Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10922Amped

Season APEX 161.2Event APEX 63.43Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1787The Flying Circuits

Season APEX 209.9Event APEX 89.16Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 380.5 ±14.8

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 66.72Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3951SUITS

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 53.75Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5528Ultime

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 90.42Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3181, 10922, 1787

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3181, 10922, 1787

Auto

52.3 20%

Teleop

145.4 56%

Endgame

63.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3173, 3951, 5528

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3173, 3951, 5528

Auto

44.0 21%

Teleop

113.3 53%

Endgame

55.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score264.8pts

Blue projected score210.9pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53.9
Score range: 185–291
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 412 vs event baseline 146.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

604.1Season APEX380.5

52.3Auto44

145.4Teleop113.3

63.5Endgame55.2

7Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	62
teleop	125	57
endgame	54	34
foul	0	10
total	249	163

Result

Final score

249 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 pts

Match videos

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