Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

382.25 – 142.19

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

350 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 43.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 856.4 ±8.7

694StuyPulse

A+

Season APEX 323.3Event APEX 138.19Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 73.83Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3015Ranger Robotics

A+

Season APEX 312.5Event APEX 170.23Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 301.5 ±16.5

1056Hot Rocks

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 60.52Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2228CougarTech

Season APEX 113Event APEX 33.08Rank 11Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

6868Cadet Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 48.59Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 694, 48, 3015

/ 100 compat

Projected

382.3 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 694, 48, 3015

Auto

86.5 23%

Teleop

208.2 56%

Endgame

75.3 20%

Strengths

· 3015 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1056, 2228, 6868

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.2 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 1056, 2228, 6868

Auto

30.3 23%

Teleop

72.4 54%

Endgame

31.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.48 · Blue 0.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score382.3pts

Blue projected score142.2pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 240.1
Score range: 116–408
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 438 vs event baseline 145.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

856.4Season APEX301.5

86.5Auto30.3

208.2Teleop72.4

75.3Endgame31.3

0Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	105	25
teleop	207	57
endgame	38	6
foul	0	0
total	350	88

Result

Final score

350 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 43.2 pts

Match videos

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