Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

172.57 – 212.2

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

147 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 23.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 513.1 ±12.7

1507Warlocks

Season APEX 154.7Event APEX 70.32Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8503Raid One

Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 47.11Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 55.14Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 654.2 ±13.3

1405Finney Falcons

Season APEX 188.4Event APEX 96.71Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3044Team 0xBE4

Season APEX 259.2Event APEX 57.6Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1591Greece Gladiators

Season APEX 206.6Event APEX 57.89Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1507, 8503, 1511

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1507, 8503, 1511

Auto

17.1 10%

Teleop

110.9 66%

Endgame

39.5 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1405, 3044, 1591

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.2 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1405, 3044, 1591

Auto

30.2 14%

Teleop

113.4 54%

Endgame

67.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score172.6pts

Blue projected score212.2pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.6
Score range: 147–238
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 338 vs event baseline 145.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

513.1Season APEX654.2

17.1Auto30.2

110.9Teleop113.4

39.5Endgame67.5

29Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	32
teleop	81	120
endgame	46	29
foul	0	10
total	147	191

Result

Final score

147 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 23.4 pts

Match videos

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