Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

296.93 – 165.38

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

239 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 39.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 572.9 ±12.2

340G.R.R. (Greater Rochester Robotics)

Season APEX 265.2Event APEX 128.24Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

424Rust Belt Robotics

Season APEX 220.8Event APEX 148.79Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1468Hicksville J-Birds

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 19.9Rank 48Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 491.5 ±14.5

353POBots

Season APEX 169.7Event APEX 19.29Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1559Devil Tech

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 65.44Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2340Mercy Robotics-Xcentrics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 80.65Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 340, 424, 1468

/ 100 compat

Projected

296.9 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 340, 424, 1468

Auto

58.4 21%

Teleop

177.1 63%

Endgame

47.3 17%

Strengths

· 424 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 353, 1559, 2340

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.4 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 353, 1559, 2340

Auto

28.1 18%

Teleop

95.9 63%

Endgame

28.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.23 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score296.9pts

Blue projected score165.4pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 131.6
Score range: 139–323
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 384 vs event baseline 144.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

572.9Season APEX491.5

58.4Auto28.1

177.1Teleop95.9

47.3Endgame28.4

47Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	25
teleop	125	62
endgame	54	43
foul	5	15
total	239	145

Result

Final score

239 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 39.2 pts

Match videos

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