Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

293.2 – 288.93

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

262 – 293

Prediction missed · off by 17.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 569 ±12.9

6423Ward Melville Iron Patriots

Season APEX 83Event APEX 34.57Rank 19Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

424Rust Belt Robotics

Season APEX 220.8Event APEX 139.71Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

340G.R.R. (Greater Rochester Robotics)

Season APEX 265.2Event APEX 118.92Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 604.1 ±10.4

3181Pittsford Panthers

Season APEX 233Event APEX 120.14Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10922Amped

Season APEX 161.2Event APEX 71.14Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1787The Flying Circuits

Season APEX 209.9Event APEX 97.65Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6423, 424, 340

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.2 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6423, 424, 340

Auto

52.5 19%

Teleop

174.6 62%

Endgame

54.9 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3181, 10922, 1787

/ 100 compat

Projected

288.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3181, 10922, 1787

Auto

58.8 22%

Teleop

144.1 53%

Endgame

67.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score293.2pts

Blue projected score288.9pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.3
Score range: 261–321
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 555 vs event baseline 155.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

569Season APEX604.1

52.5Auto58.8

174.6Teleop144.1

54.9Endgame67.1

27Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	66
teleop	125	160
endgame	58	57
foul	35	10
total	262	293

Result

Final score

262 – 293

Prediction missed · off by 17.6 pts

Match videos

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