Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

275.55 – 202.29

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

367 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 74.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 604.1 ±10.4

3181Pittsford Panthers

Season APEX 233Event APEX 115.41Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10922Amped

Season APEX 161.2Event APEX 66.81Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1787The Flying Circuits

Season APEX 209.9Event APEX 93.33Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 380.5 ±14.8

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 60.74Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3951SUITS

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 51.08Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5528Ultime

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 90.47Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3181, 10922, 1787

/ 100 compat

Projected

275.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3181, 10922, 1787

Auto

61.0 24%

Teleop

134.0 52%

Endgame

63.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3173, 3951, 5528

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3173, 3951, 5528

Auto

52.0 26%

Teleop

104.1 52%

Endgame

44.4 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score275.6pts

Blue projected score202.3pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 73.3
Score range: 174–304
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 626 vs event baseline 153.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

604.1Season APEX380.5

61Auto52

134Teleop104.1

63.5Endgame44.4

10Consistency112

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	46
teleop	203	154
endgame	88	4
foul	30	55
total	367	259

Result

Final score

367 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 74.1 pts

Match videos

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