Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

278.58 – 373.52

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

214 – 326

Prediction correct · off by 56 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 572.9 ±12.2

340G.R.R. (Greater Rochester Robotics)

Season APEX 265.2Event APEX 122.92Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

424Rust Belt Robotics

Season APEX 220.8Event APEX 143.14Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1468Hicksville J-Birds

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 12.52Rank 48Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 856.4 ±8.7

694StuyPulse

A+

Season APEX 323.3Event APEX 135.43Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3015Ranger Robotics

A+

Season APEX 312.5Event APEX 167.2Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 70.89Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 340, 424, 1468

/ 100 compat

Projected

278.6 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 340, 424, 1468

Auto

58.7 22%

Teleop

155.2 58%

Endgame

52.0 20%

Strengths

· 424 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 694, 3015, 48

/ 100 compat

Projected

373.5 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 694, 3015, 48

Auto

89.1 24%

Teleop

208.6 57%

Endgame

67.5 18%

Strengths

· 3015 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.02 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score278.6pts

Blue projected score373.5pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -94.9
Score range: 252–401
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 540 vs event baseline 152.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

572.9Season APEX856.4

58.7Auto89.1

155.2Teleop208.6

52Endgame67.5

31Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	53
teleop	88	164
endgame	84	74
foul	5	35
total	214	326

Result

Final score

214 – 326

Prediction correct · off by 56 pts

Match videos

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