Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

62.47 – 62.47

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

98 – 157

Prediction missed · off by 65 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 554.6 ±15.6

1585Scitobor Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX -Rank 29Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

353POBots

Season APEX 169.7Event APEX -Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

694StuyPulse

A+

Season APEX 323.3Event APEX -Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 382.3 ±14.5

2340Mercy Robotics-Xcentrics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX -Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

639Code Red Robotics

Season APEX 69.4Event APEX -Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2228CougarTech

Season APEX 113Event APEX -Rank 11Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1585, 353, 694

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1585, 353, 694

Auto

18.7 30%

Teleop

31.2 50%

Endgame

12.5 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2340, 639, 2228

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2340, 639, 2228

Auto

18.7 30%

Teleop

31.2 50%

Endgame

12.5 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score62.5pts

Blue projected score62.5pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0
Score range: 40–84
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 255 vs event baseline 124.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

554.6Season APEX382.3

-Auto-

-Teleop-

-Endgame-

-Consistency-

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	29
teleop	51	70
endgame	24	38
foul	5	20
total	98	157

Result

Final score

98 – 157

Prediction missed · off by 65 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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