Qualification · Qualification 83

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

85.51 – 115.16

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

86 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 12.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 201.5 ±14.5

1056Hot Rocks

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 61.23Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

639Code Red Robotics

Season APEX 69.4Event APEX 33.75Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7903Tigers

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX -9.47Rank 53Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 308.5 ±17.5

432The Final Countdown

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 34.52Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 88

3838Roc City Robotix

Provisional

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 57.82Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

20The Rocketeers

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 22.82Rank 40Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1056, 639, 7903

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1056, 639, 7903

Auto

16.7 20%

Teleop

50.6 61%

Endgame

15.7 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 432, 3838, 20

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.2 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 432, 3838, 20

Auto

18.3 17%

Teleop

46.0 42%

Endgame

44.5 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score85.5pts

Blue projected score115.2pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.6
Score range: 60–141
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 177 vs event baseline 143.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

201.5Season APEX308.5

16.7Auto18.3

50.6Teleop46

15.7Endgame44.5

60Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	26
teleop	51	26
endgame	6	19
foul	5	20
total	86	91

Result

Final score

86 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 12.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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