Qualification · Qualification 82

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

80.25 – 119.24

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

77 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 12 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 293.8 ±17.3

378The Circuit Stompers

Provisional

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 18.51Rank 52Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

325Respawn Robotics

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 17.74Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

4253Raid Zero

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 44Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 372.7 ±13.9

564Longwood RoboLions

Season APEX 64.9Event APEX 21.75Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

8503Raid One

Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 32.21Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1507Warlocks

Season APEX 154.7Event APEX 65.28Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 378, 325, 4253

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 378, 325, 4253

Auto

20.6 26%

Teleop

35.1 45%

Endgame

22.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 564, 8503, 1507

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.2 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 564, 8503, 1507

Auto

17.1 15%

Teleop

72.5 64%

Endgame

24.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score80.3pts

Blue projected score119.2pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39
Score range: 54–145
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 217 vs event baseline 144.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

293.8Season APEX372.7

20.6Auto17.1

35.1Teleop72.5

22.1Endgame24.1

24Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	35
teleop	25	95
endgame	26	5
foul	5	5
total	77	140

Result

Final score

77 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 12 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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