Qualification · Qualification 81

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

118.67 – 125.7

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

145 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 29.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 362.5 ±13.9

2228CougarTech

Season APEX 113Event APEX 27.46Rank 11Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4930Electric Mayhem

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 36.7Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 54.51Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 496.8 ±15.8

271Mechanical Marauders

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 19.9Rank 27Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

3044Team 0xBE4

Season APEX 259.2Event APEX 55.39Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3951SUITS

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 50.41Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2228, 4930, 3173

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2228, 4930, 3173

Auto

23.6 21%

Teleop

54.9 49%

Endgame

33.7 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 271, 3044, 3951

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 271, 3044, 3951

Auto

29.8 24%

Teleop

65.8 54%

Endgame

26.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score118.7pts

Blue projected score125.7pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7
Score range: 93–152
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 304 vs event baseline 144.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

362.5Season APEX496.8

23.6Auto29.8

54.9Teleop65.8

33.7Endgame26.6

49Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	22
teleop	76	65
endgame	37	72
foul	0	0
total	145	159

Result

Final score

145 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 29.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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